Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
