A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
